IMD achieves 80% accuracy in monsoon predictions, Minister to Arora in Parliament -

Ludhiana, 30 November 2024: IMD (India Meteorological Department) actively works with various ministries like the Central Water Commission (CWC), National and State Disaster Management Authorities, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), State Governments, etc., to issue various forecasts and warnings along with updated weather and climate information.

This has been stated by the Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr Jitendra Singh in an answer to a question asked by MP (Rajya Sabha) Sanjeev Arora in the ongoing Winter Session of Rajya Sabha. Arora had asked questions on monsoon prediction accuracy.

In a statement here on Saturday, Arora said the Minister further mentioned in his reply that during the last five years, from 2020 to 2024, the prediction for all India Southwest Monsoon Forecast (June-September) was accurate for 80% of the time.

Further, the Minister answered that the Ministry of Earth Sciences has launched the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) to develop a state-of- the-art dynamical prediction system for the monsoon rainfall in different time scales. This has focused on seasonal (June-September) and extended-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with delineation of active/break spells, using high- resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamical models with reasonable skill, as well as short-range forecasts. Through NMM, two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems were implemented for short-range to medium-range, extended-range, and seasonal forecasts.

Further, the Minister answered that IMD has adopted a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country based on the statistical forecasting system and the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centres, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.

Arora said the minister mentioned in his answer that IMD issues monthly and seasonal forecasts operationally for rainfall and temperature (including cold and heat waves) throughout the year.